Tuesday, June 9, 2009

The Obama Effect?

As we discussed in class Saturday, Lebanon held elections this weekend. Somewhat surprisingly, an “American-aligned” coalition took 71 seats whereas the Syria-Iranian aligned opposition – including Hezbollah – took only 57 seats (see NYTimes Article)
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/09/world/middleeast/09lebanon.html?_r=1&th&emc=th


Analysts are wondering if President Obama’s Cairo speech was echoing in the ears of the Lebanese voters as they went to the polls. Osama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies in the US is quoted as saying: “It is no longer relevant for the extremists to use the anti-American card. It does look like the U.S. is moving on to something new.”


Iran also holds a presidential election this Friday. Some Middle East analysts wonder if the Obama Effect will spill over to this election as well.


While 475 candidates registered to run for office, only four were authorized by the Guardian Council to run. Hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is apparently not in the lead.


Interestingly, the candidate Hussein Mousavi has been heavily courting the female vote and his wife has been giving policy speeches and attending his rallies—very unusual in Iran.


The link below from a joint NDI/TCF Iran Newsletter will lead you to a time line of the Iranian election, that shows the progression from announcement of election in September, 2008, to the June 12th election.
http://ndi.org/files/images/Iran_2009Feb_ElectionTimeline.jpg



And the following link leads you to an explanation of lines of authority within Iran, also from the NDI/TCF newsletter
http://ndi.org/files/images/Iran_2009Mar_PowerDiagram.jpg




It is hard to see these illustrations in the blog, so I recommend using the links.


Carol Starmack

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